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An overview of Nigeria's 2023 elections

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An overview of Nigeria's 2023 elections

What you need to know for this weekend’s polls

Jeffrey Paller
Feb 23, 2023
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An overview of Nigeria's 2023 elections

thisweekinafrica.substack.com

Nigerians plan to go to the polls on Saturday to elect a new president in the most important election of the year. #NigeriaDecides. #NaijaDecides.

Twitter avatar for @hofrench
Howard French @hofrench
Why the world’s eyes will be—or should be—on Nigeria in the coming weeks.
foreignpolicy.com2023’s Most Important Election Isn’t Where You ThinkWhy the world’s eyes will be—or should be—on Nigeria in the coming weeks.
1:43 PM ∙ Jan 7, 2023
43Likes17Retweets

The race is coming down to the wire: Idriss Mohammed calls the race too close to call. While 18 candidates compete for president (only one woman!), it is likely a race between Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, and Peter Obi. Don’t count out the role of Rabiu Kwakanso, a former governor of Kano State who is very popular in the north. The winner will need to win the most votes nationwide and at least a quarter of the votes in at least two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states. If there is no clear winner, there will be a second round within three weeks.

This is a good summary of the race. Suleiman Barnabas, Paul James, Franklin Oduro, and George Ofosu provide this excellent analysis. Afolabi Adekaiyaoja writes this comprehensive report, while CSIS experts discuss how this election is different from those in the past. The Financial Times, The Republic, The BBC, NY Times, The Continent, and Al Jazeera have consistent ongoing coverage. Here are some good statistics on the electoral registrar.

Twitter avatar for @AkinpeluYusuph
Yūsuf Akínpẹ̀lú. @AkinpeluYusuph
As Nigerians prepare to cast their ballots this weekend, here are some key statistics you should know: 🗳️ 93,469,008 registered voters 🇳🇬 43% of them are in the north west and south west regions 🕵️There are about 1,500 posts up for grab 💵 $7 is the projected cost per voter.
As Nigerians brace up to cast their ballots this weekend, here are some key statistics you should know.

This is a production of BBC Africa Visual Journalism team.
About 43% of the over 93 million registered voters are in the north west and south west regions, according to electoral body Inec.
There are about 1,500 positions up for grab across national and states elections.
Inec says the election is projected to cost about $662 million. That's about $7 cost per voter.
1:40 PM ∙ Feb 22, 2023
14Likes10Retweets

With 93 million registered voters, the election is a logistical feat. There are 176,846 polling units nationwide! The youth are poised to shape the election this time around.

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Ope Adetayo @OpeAdetayo1
In Nigeria’s election, young people seek to wield new power Latest for @washingtonpost with @Rachel_Chason and @awuorombuor.
washingtonpost.comIn Nigeria’s election, young people seek to wield new powerPeter Obi’s promises of reform have won a wide following among young people, who represent 70 percent of the population.
8:38 AM ∙ Feb 23, 2023
18Likes12Retweets

Here are five things to consider in the lead-up to the polls:

1.     More than a two-person race

For the first time in recent memory, this is more than a two-person race between All Progressives Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidates. Ayodeji Rotinwa explains that this makes it the least predictable election in the nation’s history. Like Kenya’s 2022 election, voters face a new political landscape.

In the early months of the race, the governing party’s Bola Tinubu appeared inevitable to follow in Buhari’s footsteps. His unsurprising challenger with significant support in the north was the PDP’s multimillionaire businessman Atiku Abubakar, running for the fifth time at 76 years old.

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Zain Asher @ZainAsher
Nigerians head to the polls on Saturday to vote for a new President. @dayoisrael National Youth Leader @OfficialAPCNg joins us to discuss Bola #Tinubu's campaign. @OneWorldCNN | #NigeriaElections2023
9:40 PM ∙ Feb 22, 2023
2,318Likes1,150Retweets

Since then, Former Governor and Labour party candidate Peter Obi crashed the party. Popular with youth in the south, Obi calls for “a new Nigeria” that is accountable to its people. A recent Stears’ poll put Obi in the lead.

Twitter avatar for @StearsInsights
Stears @StearsInsights
We’re excited to announce the results of Nigeria’s first predictive poll! The Stears 2023 Electoral Poll samples 6,220 respondents across Nigeria’s 36 states, making it the largest statistically significant electoral poll to date in Nigeria. #StearsPolls
bit.lyFree to read | Stears’ poll predicts who will be Nigeria’s next presidentA predictive analysis of polling results administered to Nigerians in anticipation of the 2023 presidential elections.
7:16 AM ∙ Feb 7, 2023
1,853Likes1,225Retweets

We will see whether Peter Obi’s campaign is more than “four people tweeting in a room.” The Obidients in the crowd seem to suggest that it is.

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Peter Obi @PeterObi
I've just arrived at the Eke Awka Market, Awka for a market storm. - PO
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12:40 PM ∙ Feb 21, 2023
44,376Likes8,481Retweets

An Obi victory would be hugely significant. Ope Adetayo explains the rise of the Obidients.

Twitter avatar for @OpeAdetayo1
Ope Adetayo @OpeAdetayo1
“I was 15 years of age when Buhari came to power and I felt like the past eight years of my life have been a waste.” My piece for @CodaStory looks at how the Obidient movement has risen from the corners of social media to the brink of power.
codastory.comThe rise of the ObidientsThe Nigerian youth movement behind presidential candidate Peter Obi is looking to take power in 2023.
8:03 AM ∙ Jan 20, 2023
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Who will emerge as Nigeria’s next president?

Twitter avatar for @JWPaller
Jeffrey Paller @JWPaller
Who Will Emerge as Nigeria's Next President?
voanews.comWho Will Emerge as Nigeria’s Next President?Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, goes to the polls Saturday to elect a new president amid worsening insecurity and economic struggles. Tensions over shortages of cash and fuel could also influence how people vote. Timothy Obiezu reports from Abuja, Nigeria.
8:54 AM ∙ Feb 23, 2023

2.     It’s the economy – and the insecurity, stupid

The elections are taking place within a challenging economic and security context, and Nigerians are demanding that candidates provide policies that will improve their lives. Nigerians are running short on cash, gas, and patience. “Everything is just tough,” a young woman explains.

Twitter avatar for @chinedu_asadu
Chinedu Asadu @chinedu_asadu
I have been following the experience of a Nigerian family struggling to get by with no cash available for their daily needs, forcing them to go hungry on some days and leaving their sick kids without drugs. A lot to unpack from this story. 🧵 ⬇️ apnews.com/article/ea096f…
apnews.comNigerian cash crisis brings pain: ‘Everything is just tough’ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — No one in Godgift Inemesit’s family of eight is sure when they will eat each day — except for her three kids, two of whom have malaria. She can’t pay for the drugs they need or feed the rest of her family regularly.
9:25 AM ∙ Feb 18, 2023
94Likes75Retweets

There is fear that widespread insecurity and violence will undermine the elections, and could even lead to postponing the polls. Insecurity constitutes ongoing threats to electoral integrity. The candidates explain how they plan to deal with insecurity—especially the threat of Boko Haram. But they make vague promises on security.

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ISS @issafrica
None of #Nigeria’s top 3 presidential candidates have costed the security plans in their manifestoes. ISS Today on security policy and #NigeriaElections2023 promises @woleojewale @babakamoru issafrica.org/iss-today/nige…
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7:25 AM ∙ Jan 24, 2023
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This article fact-checks claims by the candidates. Should Nigerians vote their conscience? Who are they voting for—and why?

3.     The Godfathers of Nigeria

The Republic’s latest issue does an excellent job of showing the connections between governors, presidency, and the web of strategists.

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Jeffrey Paller @JWPaller
republic.com.ng/product/the-re…
7:54 AM ∙ Feb 23, 2023

“The Godfather,” or the character who “moves in silence,” holds these ties together. These political figures operate at multiple scales of government and are themselves running in gubernatorial campaigns across the country on March 11. This reporting on Lagos Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu does an excellent job of demonstrating how godfatherism can pave a path to power, but also constrain meaningful change.

Personal politics continues to be a source of mobilization in Nigeria, and the challenge is to translate this into a national following. Bola Tinubu has long been the godfather of Lagos, building a powerful political machine that is often credited with significant economic and governance reforms.

But perhaps the real battleground is for Kano—the key to unlock the north. This is where godfather Rabiu Kwakanso could swing the election. Pay attention to how these personal networks swing the race, and check out Portia Roelofs’ forthcoming book Good Governance in Nigeria which places the voices of roadside traders and small-time market leaders alongside those of local government officials, political godfathers and technocrats to explain how politics actually works in the country.

4.     Democratic deepening but disappointment with democracy

When President Buhari steps down after a new president is elected, Nigeria will have had its third consecutive peaceful transfer of power. Oil and patronage are no longer the only way to gain political power.

Twitter avatar for @africaarguments
African Arguments @africaarguments
Oligarchs, Oil and Obi-dients: The battle for the soul of #Nigeria 🇳🇬 #NigeriaDecides2023 africanarguments.org/2023/02/oligar…
9:26 AM ∙ Feb 6, 2023
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The country’s democracy is much freer and fairer than in the past. Yet, as Amaka Anku notes, Nigerians are much more dissatisfied with it. Listen to this group of young Nigerians discuss the state of their country. Only 21 percent are satisfied with their democracy.

Twitter avatar for @afrobarometer
Afrobarometer @afrobarometer
Seven out of 10 Nigerians (70%) prefer democracy to any other kind of government. But only two out of 10 (21%) are satisfied with the way their democracy is working. Read more in our latest Dispatch: bit.ly/3KvFl4L #Nigeria #VoicesAfrica #NigeriaDecides2023
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1:59 PM ∙ Feb 21, 2023
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Nine in ten say the country is going in the wrong direction.

Twitter avatar for @afrobarometer
Afrobarometer @afrobarometer
Nine in 10 Nigerians (89%) say the country is going “in the wrong direction,” the most negative assessment in more than a decade. Read more: bit.ly/3HRbfa3 #NigeriaDecides2023 #Nigeria #VoicesAfrica
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3:51 PM ∙ Feb 2, 2023
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Nigerians are tired of the vote-buying and patron-client relationships.

Twitter avatar for @JWPaller
Jeffrey Paller @JWPaller
Nigeria’s Democratic Malaise foreignaffairs.com/nigeria/nigeri… via @ForeignAffairs
foreignaffairs.comNigeria’s Democratic MalaiseWhy the new president will need to strengthen the state.
11:20 AM ∙ Feb 22, 2023

All that said, Nigeria seems to be on autopilot, which might be Buhari’s greatest legacy. In many ways, the state of democracy in Nigeria represents the protracted state of many African democracies. Leonardo Arriola, Lise Rakner, and Nicolas van de Walle’s Democratic Resilience in Africa? provides great analysis on the state of African democracy. Ken Opalo sheds light on disconnect between demand for democracy and widespread disillusionment with elected governments: You cannot eat democracy.

5.     Beyond the headlines

Coastal West Africa will shape the coming century. Nigeria will soon become the world’s third largest country. While the economy and security dominate the headlines, Nigerians are talking about other issues that matter as well. Climate change, technology, housing, and gender equality are just some of the issues on people’s minds.

Floods killed hundreds and displaced more than 1.4 million people in northern Nigeria this year, while Lagos confronts sea level rise. Olawaseun Oguntuase explains where the candidates stand on climate change. Nigerians face rising food insecurity, which candidates have addressed but there remains unclear proposed policies to confront the challenge.

Nigerian cities face an affordable housing shortage of 28 million units. Governing African cities is not easy. Lagos might be becoming Africa’s Silicon Valley (or it might not). Big Tech and African startups have the potential to reshape the country. Tech hubs are sprouting up everywhere. Government’s role in attracting investment but also limiting inequality is key. Urban governance has finally emerged as a talking point during the campaigns.

Half of Nigeria’s population are women, but only four percent were elected in the 2019 election. Sharon Adetutu Omotoso explains why women are not represented in politics. All in all, Nigerians want to be included in governing their country.

Twitter avatar for @USIP
U.S. Institute of Peace @USIP
Debates over the value of Nigeria's ticket-balancing tradition (between Muslims and Christians, northerners and southerners) have raged throughout this campaign, underscoring the urgency that many Nigerians feel around broadening real political inclusion.
usip.orgA Key Election for Nigeria Raises a Rising Demand: InclusionNigerians, nearly one-sixth of all Africans, will choose a new president next week in what may be Africa’s most consequential election of 2023. A central demand amid this campaign is a better inclusion of Nigeria’s hundreds of ethnic, religious and other communities in elections and governance.
9:01 PM ∙ Feb 20, 2023
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